November 30, 2009

"I`ve Accumulated A Few More Dollars. We Will Probably Also Have A Gold Correction"

"Throughout history, printing money has led to weaker currencies and higher prices for real assets. And there are many, many pessimists about the dollar, including me. So many pessimists that I suspect there's a rally coming. I have no idea why there should be, but things do usually rally when you have this many bears at the same time. I've actually accumulated a few more dollars. I mean, it's not a significant position, but I do own more dollars than I did a month ago. And we'll probably also have a gold correction because there's so many bulls on gold."

In Business Week

November 28, 2009

Who Is Behind The Runup On Gold?

Certainly a demand story because, as I said, everybody's printing so much money and people around the world are worried about that. But you also have central banks, which five years ago were selling gold, now buying. So that's a huge shift in the marketplace. Central banks are like lots of other people—they just follow the crowd. There are probably better commodities to buy than gold, but you can't tell that to central banks because they've got gold on the brain.

in Business Week

November 26, 2009

Latest Interview in BWeek

Gold, as you know, hit an all-time high today, with the Russian central bank buying bullion. How high can gold go?

Well, I own gold and I have for a while. How high can it go? I fully expect it to be over a couple thousand dollars an ounce sometime in the next decade—I didn't say the next month, I didn't say the next year, I said the next decade—because paper money around the world is very suspect. But right now everybody's bullish on it, so I don't like to buy things when that's happening. But I'm not selling under any circumstances.

What's behind the runup? Has buying by the central banks changed the equation here? Or is this still a demand story?

Certainly a demand story because, as I said, everybody's printing so much money and people around the world are worried about that. But you also have central banks, which five years ago were selling gold, now buying. So that's a huge shift in the marketplace. Central banks are like lots of other people—they just follow the crowd. There are probably better commodities to buy than gold, but you can't tell that to central banks because they've got gold on the brain.

How much of the runup is being driven by U.S. deficits and the weakening dollar?

A huge amount is about not just U.S. deficits, but all deficits. Deficits are going berserk nearly everywhere. Throughout history, printing money has led to weaker currencies and higher prices for real assets. And there are many, many pessimists about the dollar, including me. So many pessimists that I suspect there's a rally coming. I have no idea why there should be, but things do usually rally when you have this many bears at the same time. I've actually accumulated a few more dollars. I mean, it's not a significant position, but I do own more dollars than I did a month ago. And we'll probably also have a gold correction because there's so many bulls on gold.

So you're looking at other commodities you think are better opportunities?

If you want to buy precious metal, I'd rather buy silver or palladium. Both are very depressed. I continue to be more optimistic about agriculture than some other commodities.

As BusinessWeek reports this week, global investors are snapping up thousands of acres of farmland in Africa. Money from everywhere—from Saudi Arabia to Wall Street-backed funds—is pouring in. Why the sudden focus on Africa?

The gigantic acreage in Africa has been underfarmed because there is not much infrastructure, not much machinery, not much expertise, not much fertilizer. I think the world is going to have huge food problems in the next few years. Other people seem to see that, too, so they're buying up farmland. You can either buy it or lease it. It's very, very cheap, it's incredibly fertile, and it hasn't been overexploited. And if you take in some expertise and some machinery and some fertilizer, you should make a lot of money. The labor's cheap, everything's cheap.

So you think Africa is a good investment opportunity?

I think it's a fantastic investment opportunity. Now there are over 50 countries in Africa, so we can't make too gross a generalization. But I mean, in the Congo, you don't even have to plant anything. You just sit by the road long enough, something will grow. Yes, I am very, very optimistic.

What's your outlook for commodities in 2010?

I'm not smart enough to know. But I will say that if the world economy gets better, then commodities will be one of the best places to be because of the shortages that are developing. If the world economy does not get better, commodities will still be the place to be because governments are printing all this money.

Tim Geithner has been under attack lately. How's he doing?

Listen, I have been a critic for years. Geithner should never have been appointed to anything. He's been wrong about just about everything for 15 years.

Do you think he'll lose his job?

Of course he's going to lose his job, because as Mr. Obama realizes that Geithner doesn't know what he's doing, he's going to look for somebody else because he doesn't want to take the heat himself. So he's going to look to blame somebody, and the obvious person is Geithner.

China`s Water Problem

“China has a huge water problem which they are trying to solve. Someone is going to make a fortune as they try, whether they solve it or not.” Jim Rogers (Bloomberg)

China’s long-term food security and social stability may be threatened unless the world’s largest grain producer invests more to fight the effects of drought, McKinsey & Co. said.

Extreme drought caused by a “high climate change scenario” could more than triple crop losses in northeast China to 13.8 million metric tons, or 12 percent of the total, by 2030, said a report by New York-based McKinsey & Co released yesterday.
in Bloomberg

November 25, 2009

If Everyone Thinks One Way, It Is Likely To Be Wrong

"If everyone thinks one way, it is likely to be wrong. If you can figure out that it is wrong, you are likely to make a lot of money."

Rogers says he’s somewhat surprised at his own success.

“I certainly wanted to get somewhere and was willing to work hard,” Rogers says.

“As I was not smarter than most people, I was willing to work harder than most.”

Rogers says he tries to “find something that is very cheap, where a positive change is taking place,” then does enough homework to make sure the purchase is a sound one.

“It has got to be cheap so that, if I am wrong, I don’t lose much money,” he notes.

in MoneyNews.com

November 24, 2009

What Will Happen To Gold?

“I can’t say what will happen to gold tomorrow... but if you ask me whether gold will go up in the long term... I would say yes .”

in Economic Times

November 23, 2009

Should We Buy Gold Or Silver?

"I would suspect that if you were buying gold or silver right now silver would be a better buy. I mean gold is making all time highs, but silver is 70 per cent below its all time high. Now, if my thesis is right about commodities that they're going to make new all time highs, obviously you would make that much more money in silver than in gold."

in www.theglobeandmail.com

Gold, Silver, Cotton And Coffee

"Despite gold's potential, I think I will make more money in other commodities such as silver, cotton, or coffee - all of which are terribly depressed"

November, 2009 in Commodity Online

November 22, 2009

Investment Strategy

Buy low and sell high. I try to find something that is very cheap, where a positive change is taking place. Then I do enough homework to make sure I am right. It has got to be cheap so that, if I am wrong, I don’t lose much money.

November 21, 2009

Interview With the Financial Times

Did you think you would get to where you are?

No, I am as surprised as anyone. I certainly wanted to get somewhere and was willing to work hard. I wanted to retire young, but I never thought I would retire before 40.

When you realised that you had made your first million were you tempted to slow down?

I can remember the exact day of my first million dollars’ net worth. It was in November 1977. I was 35. I knew I needed more than that to do what I wanted when I was 37 – the age I decided to stop working to seek adventure.

What is the secret of your success?

As I was not smarter than most people, I was willing to work harder than most. I was prepared to examine conventional wisdom. If everyone thinks one way, it is likely to be wrong. If you can figure out that it is wrong, you are likely to make a lot of money.

What is your basic investment strategy?

Buy low and sell high. I try to find something that is very cheap, where a positive change is taking place. Then I do enough homework to make sure I am right. It has got to be cheap so that, if I am wrong, I don’t lose much money. Every time I make a mistake, it is usually because I did not do enough homework.

Do not underestimate the value of due diligence. In the 1960s, General Motors was the world’s most successful company. One day, a GM analyst went to the board of directors with the message: “The Japanese are coming.” They ignored him. Investors who did their homework sold their GM stock – and bought Toyota instead.

I’m not buying any stocks at the moment. If anything is undervalued now it is commodities and some currencies.

What has been your most spectacular gain?

The Quantum Fund. When we started the company in 1970, I had $600 in my pocket. Within 10 years, the portfolio had gained 4,200 per cent.

Do you want to carry on till you drop?

No. These days, I spend very few hours a day working, because I have two little girls and I want to spend as much time with them as possible.

Both our girls have a Chinese governess and speak fluent Mandarin. For their generation, Mandarin and English will be the most important languages.

Have you made any pension provision?

I don’t have a pension because I hope I don’t need one. I have accumulated assets and that is what I live on.

What is your commitment to charity?

I have given money to students and schools around the world. I try to give scholarships to students rather than schools, because the students need the money more than administrators.

Do you allow yourself the odd indulgence?

I have been around the world twice. Setting off in 1990, I spent 22 months travelling through six continents on a motorcycle.

On my second trip, which started in 1999, my wife and I travelled for three years through 116 countries in a custom-made Mercedes.

What is the most you have ever paid for a bottle of fine wine or champagne?

I don’t have an upper limit for champagne, but I’ve never had the urge to spend $2,000 on a bottle of wine. I always remember my background. I did not have money as a kid.

Picasso or Art Deco as an investment?

I am at a stage where I am not interested in having or amassing stuff.

Do you believe in passing your wealth to children?

I’ve always thought that, if you give children too much, you will ruin them. I have set up my will so they don’t get much until they are at least 30.

I went to Yale and Oxford and a lot of rich kids were there who never had to work. I know I want my children to be well-
educated and experience the workplace.

Education and the necessity to work changed my life and yanked me out of the backwater of Alabama.

Where should people put their money in the recession?

Invest only in things you know something about. The mistake most people make is that they listen to hot tips, or act on something they read in magazines.

Most people know a lot about something, so they should just stick to what they know and buy an investment in that area. That is how you get rich.

You don’t get rich investing in things you know nothing about.

November 18, 2009

Mining Stocks? Not With My Money.

What about mining stocks as a way to play rising silver and gold prices?

Jim Rogers: Not with my money. The studies show that you would make more investing in commodities themselves rather than commodity stocks unless you are a very good stock picker. If you are a good stock picker, unless you find a company that is going to discover silver in Berlin you buy all you can and then you call me and I'm going to buy it too ....short of something like that and there are a hundred gold stocks and most of them don't pan out. But if you own gold, gold is making all time highs.

November 17, 2009

Gold: "I Should Be Selling At The Top, But I Don`t Think This Is The Top"

Jim you are typically a contrarian investor. If everyone is buying, shouldn't you be selling?

Jim Rogers : Yes, I should be selling at the top, but I don't think this is the top. Gold, if you adjust it for its old highs, adjust it for inflation back in 1980, gold should be over $2000 an ounce right now. In my view, in this bull market in commodities gold will make all new highs adjust for inflation.

in The Globe And Mail

November 16, 2009

About Commodities

"If you can tell me something else where the fundamentals are so attractive:I'd be happy to put my money there.But I don't know of any other place."

in Guru Focus

November 15, 2009

Gold Will Reach 2,000 USD In The Next Decade

"Just to get back to the old high back in 1980, adjusted for inflation, the price would need to be over $2,000 now. So we'll certainly get there some time in the next decade." in Bullion Vault

November 14, 2009

"What Currency Do You Like Right Now?"

Jim Rogers: Yen is my best right now. It's acting the best. I wouldn't buy it at the moment because it is going so up so much, maybe the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, if I were looking for new currencies today, maybe the Singapore dollar. If you're really clever, you might buy something like the Sri-Lankan currency or some emerging markets currency."

The Street.com

November 13, 2009

The US Dollar May Rally

"Whenever you have everybody on the same side of a boat, you know it's time to move to the other side for a while. We may have a rally in the dollar" in Bloomberg

November 11, 2009

No New Large Gold Mines Have Been Opened In Decades

"Regarding variables, it’s very clear there is huge suspicion about paper money around the world. This suspicion is gathering steam. Governments are printing huge amounts of money. This has always led to higher prices. Maybe I am wrong and it’s different this time. But I doubt it.

Additionally, no new large gold mines have been opened in decades. Some of those mines are over 100-years old. They are all depleting. On the other hand, central banks have huge Gold reserves above ground — and they are less interested in selling than in the past.

If you adjust Gold for inflation and go back to its former all-time high in 1980, Gold should be over $2,000 an ounce right now if you want to say it’s reaching new inflation adjusted all-time highs. That does not mean Gold has to get back to a true all-time high. Nothing has to. However, I suspect that given all the money printing in the world, we will see much higher prices for hard assets.

Despite Gold’s potential, I think I will make more money in other commodities such as silver, cotton, or coffee — all of which are terribly depressed."

in Seeking Alpha.com

Gold, Silver And Coffee

"Jim Rogers recently stated that gold and all commodities are going to continue to be a great investment no matter what happens in the overall global economy. Nouriel Roubini recently stated that there is an asset bubble but Jim Rogers totally disagrees. He feels that silver is 70% off its all time high so how is there a bubble? A bubble takes place when new all time highs are made on a daily basis.

Another point Jim Rogers makes is that a bubble does not occur until everyone is talking about and owning an asset class. At this point virtually no one owns a basket of commodities. People are starting to invest in gold but who has any investments in aluminum or sugar? Just because an asset class doubles in a year does not mean that it is in a bubble.

Jim Rogers feels that a strong reason to invest in gold is because paper money is causing huge suspicion throughout the world. Government continue to print more and more money to try and “print” their way out of a recession but this could cause huge inflation problems in the future. Even with the potential of gold, Rogers likes other commodities such as silver, cotton and coffee."

in Subprime Blogger

November 10, 2009

Farmland Is Going To Be One Of The Best Investments Of Our Lifetime

"I'm convinced that farmland is going to be one of the best investments of our time. Eventually, of course, food prices will get high enough that the market probably will be flooded with supply through development of new land or technology"

November 9, 2009

I Am Not Buying Any Stock Market Around The World

"I don`t know any emerging market, stock market that is so high that I would call it a bubble. They are certainly up a lot and maybe they are too high. But being too high is no t a bubble for anyone that knows financial markets. There is a great difference.

I am not buying any stock markets around the world right now, they have all gone up a lot and I do not like to buy anything when its been going straight up for a while."

in Bloomberg.com

All Commodity Prices Will Rise

"All commodity prices will rise, gold, silver, copper and even cotton," Jim Rogers, said at the Global Economic Revival and Chinese Capital Market Summit Forum. "The whole world is starting to print bills. With clear signs of expected upcoming inflation, there is no doubt."

Rogers believes that the commodity market whose size is only second to the foreign exchange market will continue to rise in the future for a long period of time. There maybe some changes during this time, but this period will last at least 18 to 20 years, thus becoming the best investment opportunity in the future.

in People`s Daily Online

November 8, 2009

Rogers Versus Roubini (Round 2)

Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the global economic crisis, said a forecast by investor Jim Rogers that gold will double to at least $2,000 an ounce is “utter nonsense.”

There is no inflation or “near-depression” to drive gold prices that high, Roubini said today at the Inside Commodities Conference in New York. If a severe depression came to pass, with investors buying canned goods and hiding out in log cabins, “maybe you want some gold in that scenario,” Roubini said.

“Maybe it will reach $1,100 or so but $1,500 or $2,000 is nonsense,” Roubini said.

in Bloomberg.com

November 6, 2009

Investment Bubbles

"The only bubble I see forming in the western world is on the United States government bonds. I cannot conceive of lending money to the US government for 30 years. Other than that I don`t see any bubbles going on."

In Bloomberg, November

November 5, 2009

Bloomberg Video Interview: November 4th

VIDEO 1

VIDEO 2


Latest Jim Rogers`s video interview on Bloomberg TV.

Emerging Market Stocks

“I don’t know any emerging market stock markets that are so high I’d call them a bubble. They’re certainly all up a lot, maybe they’re too high, but being too high is not a bubble for anyone who knows financial markets.

I cannot conceive of lending money to the U.S. for 30 years. Other than that, I don’t see any bubbles going on, unless he (Roubini) knows something the rest of us don’t know."

in Bloomberg.com

November 4, 2009

"Not Buying Gold Here"

Jim Rogers, the Singapore-based investor who has been one of the biggest bulls during this decade’s commodities rally, said that he would refrain from buying gold at a record high, but added that he was not betting against a drop in prices.

He told Reuters: “I cannot say what will happen to gold tomorrow. But if you ask me whether gold will go up in the long term ... I would say yes.”

November 3, 2009

Latest FT.com Video interview: November 09

Watch this 4 parts video interview with Financial Times:

Video link, HERE.

Part 1: Rogers sees brief dollar rally
He says he has increased his dollar holdings in anticipation of a rally in the U.S. currency, but the dollar is still broadly set for a lasting decline.

Part 2: Rogers still a China bull
He says he’s not buying Chinese stocks, but sees the renminbi rising despite its effective peg to the dollar.

Part 3: Rogers backs commodities for the long run.
He says he’s fully expecting another leg up in commodities, and that real assets represent the best hedge against future inflation.

Part 4: Rogers on the “bigger picture”.
He says he fully expects more pain in the financial sector, with many of the problems at the heart of the crisis simply being “papered over”.

November 2, 2009

I Expect A Currency Crisis

"I do expect a currency crisis or semi-crisis in the next year or two because there are so many imbalances in the world. That may sound radical but it's always worked that way - whenever there have been lots of problems, there have been problems in the currency markets."

in FT.com

All Commodity Prices Will Rise

“All commodity prices will rise, gold, silver, copper and even cotton. The whole world is starting to print bills…and there are clear signs of expected upcoming inflation.”

in the Global Economic Revival and Chinese Capital Market Summit Forum

We May Have A Rally In The Dollar

"Whenever you have everybody on the same side of a boat, you know it's time to move to the other side for a while. We may have a rally in the dollar"

in Bloomberg.com