Q: It has been a big run for equity markets first and foremost, what have you made of it?
A: The governments around the world are pouring huge amounts of money into the world economy. It has to go somewhere and the easiest, best way for it to go is in the financial markets.
Q: It has also concomitant with a big fall in the dollar and there is a call now for greater weakness in that currency, would you concur?
A: I am not optimistic about the US dollar long-term. In fact, the US dollar long-term is going to be a disaster. However, there are many people in the world right now who are terribly pessimistic about the dollar including me, many people have sold the dollar short, and so it would not surprise me if there were not a big rally. If a rally comes, I plan to sell that rally but I am not selling the dollar down here.
Q: What is your call on the strength that the yen has seen and the kind of a nervousness that most of those export-oriented markets are exhibiting? Where do you see it headed from here?
A: I own the yen so I am very pleased to see the yen going higher. Various things are happening in Tokyo and Japan. They are the second largest creditor nation in the world plus their government has given big incentives for people to bring the yen back into Japan. Billions of yen have been invested outside of Japan and now there is good reason for them to bring it back.
So you have a new government [in Japan], you have incentives to bring the yen back, you have the carry trade unwinding, there are many reasons for the yen to continue to go higher. I own the yen and I hope it does go higher.
Q: What about the base metals, we have seen a lot of volatile moves across most of those base metals, where do you see them headed from here?
A: Base metals have had a huge rally, as you have pointed out. I know I wouldn’t be buying the base metals right now, I do own base metals — I am not selling base metals — but I don’t like to jump on a train, which is moving at a rapid rate. Base metals have gone up a whole lot in the last nine, 10 months. So I am not doing anything except for watching.
Q: You have tracked and watched the Chinese market as well for many years, there is concern on where that market might be headed and why it is lagging the performance of others?
A: I would hardly call it lagging the performance of others. The Chinese market doubled between the fall of last year and August of this year. So it was one of the strongest markets in the world, if not the strongest. It has calmed down in the last month or two but anything that doubles in ten months should slow down and consolidate. Who knows where it is going to go from here but I own Chinese shares, I have not sold any of my Chinese shares because longer-term I am very optimistic about China.
this is the transcript of Jim Rogers latest video interview on CNBC, September 2009
September 30, 2009
September 28, 2009
Jim Rogers On Commodities Price Outlook
"When the global economy recovers, demand for commodities will rise, so will prices. If economies remain weak, governments will print money, and commodity investors can then benefit from the effects of inflation."
in China International Financial Services Conference, held at Guangzhou in South China
in China International Financial Services Conference, held at Guangzhou in South China
September 26, 2009
"The Largest Creditor Nations Are In Asia"
"The largest creditor nations are China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore. All the money is here. People are moving, influence is moving to Asia, power is moving to Asia," said Jim Rogers of International Investor. "It's another dramatic and historic shift from the West to the East."
in Insurance News Net
in Insurance News Net
September 24, 2009
Greenspan And Bernanke Introduced Crony Capitalism To The West
During the last 20 years, “Greenspan and Bernanke introduced crony capitalism to the West, which is leading to a lost decade(s),” Rogers writes.
“Market fundamentals are that failures should collapse and be replaced by creative new forces rather than being propped up as zombies. Financial institutions have been failing for centuries and the world has survived.”
If the Federal Reserve had allowed hedge fund Long Term Capital Management to fail 11 years ago, “Lehman, Bear Stearns, et al would still be here,” Rogers argues.
“Everyone would have lost so much capital and fired so many incompetents that the madness of serial bubbles (dotcoms, housing, consumption etc.) would never have occurred. … Would that governments stop interfering with fundamental principles and let the market clean out mistakes!
“Letting Lehman fail was perhaps the only thing governments have done right during this whole drama,” Rogers maintains.
in NewsMax
“Market fundamentals are that failures should collapse and be replaced by creative new forces rather than being propped up as zombies. Financial institutions have been failing for centuries and the world has survived.”
If the Federal Reserve had allowed hedge fund Long Term Capital Management to fail 11 years ago, “Lehman, Bear Stearns, et al would still be here,” Rogers argues.
“Everyone would have lost so much capital and fired so many incompetents that the madness of serial bubbles (dotcoms, housing, consumption etc.) would never have occurred. … Would that governments stop interfering with fundamental principles and let the market clean out mistakes!
“Letting Lehman fail was perhaps the only thing governments have done right during this whole drama,” Rogers maintains.
in NewsMax
September 22, 2009
Latest Interview: LewRockwell.com
What do you think the impact of commodities inflation will be on China’s overall growth story?
Printing money is going to have an effect on commodity prices, there is no question about that. Throughout history whenever governments have printed money it’s led to rising commodities prices, and now the whole world is printing money. Food inventories are the lowest they’ve been in a decade, farmers can’t get loans, you can’t get a loan to open up a new mine – it’s not hard to see that prices are going to rise. China has one advantage in that it has many of its own commodities, but prices are going to go higher, [and that will affect growth]. Is that the end of the China growth story though? I doubt it.
You’ve spoken out rather strongly against the American stimulus package, how do you feel about the Chinese stimulus package?
China is different from the US. China saved up money for a rainy day; now it is rainy and they are spending their reserves. The US – well the US had no money saved – but China is also spending the money in a smarter way, developing infrastructure and expanding capacity to use down the road. The US is focusing on make-work programs and things that will appeal to voters but do nothing for the economy. I’m not in favor of any stimulus programs, but as they’re a fact of life, I think the Chinese have done a better job.
I know you often say you're a bad market timer, but are you expecting commodity prices to return to 2007–2008 levels quickly, or are you expecting growth to be more staggered?
These things rarely happen all at once, things go up and down, and bubbles usually occur and last one to three years. But commodity prices are rising now, and they will continue rising.
Printing money is going to have an effect on commodity prices, there is no question about that. Throughout history whenever governments have printed money it’s led to rising commodities prices, and now the whole world is printing money. Food inventories are the lowest they’ve been in a decade, farmers can’t get loans, you can’t get a loan to open up a new mine – it’s not hard to see that prices are going to rise. China has one advantage in that it has many of its own commodities, but prices are going to go higher, [and that will affect growth]. Is that the end of the China growth story though? I doubt it.
You’ve spoken out rather strongly against the American stimulus package, how do you feel about the Chinese stimulus package?
China is different from the US. China saved up money for a rainy day; now it is rainy and they are spending their reserves. The US – well the US had no money saved – but China is also spending the money in a smarter way, developing infrastructure and expanding capacity to use down the road. The US is focusing on make-work programs and things that will appeal to voters but do nothing for the economy. I’m not in favor of any stimulus programs, but as they’re a fact of life, I think the Chinese have done a better job.
I know you often say you're a bad market timer, but are you expecting commodity prices to return to 2007–2008 levels quickly, or are you expecting growth to be more staggered?
These things rarely happen all at once, things go up and down, and bubbles usually occur and last one to three years. But commodity prices are rising now, and they will continue rising.
September 21, 2009
"I Expect A Currency Crisis This Fall Or Next Year"
"I would expect there to be a currency crisis or a semi-crisis this fall or next year. It's crony capitalism, Bernanke and Greenspan have brought crony capitalism to America : but that's not going to solve the world's problems."
in CNBC
in CNBC
September 18, 2009
"There Was A Great Failure In Regulation"
Jim Rogers talks about regulation on CNBC
"There was a great failure in regulation (...) I don`t know why they are not in jail."
"There was a great failure in regulation (...) I don`t know why they are not in jail."
September 17, 2009
"A 50% Rise In 6 To 9 Months Is Something To Worry About"
"We are going to have some serious problems on the world economy if we see proteccionism rise over and over again. I am worried abaout a lot of things. Markets are already up 50%, well a fifty percent rise in 6 to 9 months is something to worry about. You usually have corrections after that." In CNBC, September 15
September 15, 2009
CNBC Video Interview: September 2009
Latest Jim Rogers video interview, CNBC, September 14.
"America put out another measure of proteccionism against China. proteccionism is getting worse and worse, I am terribly worried about it because proteccionism led to the Great Depression in the 30`s."
"America put out another measure of proteccionism against China. proteccionism is getting worse and worse, I am terribly worried about it because proteccionism led to the Great Depression in the 30`s."
"US Bonds Are The Next Bubble"
"What investors should do is worry about all the debt developing in the US. They should short bonds because that's the next bubble that's building in the US" in CNBC.com, September 14
September 14, 2009
A Currency Crisis Can Happen This Year Or Next
"The worst of the economic crisis is not over and a currency crisis can happen this year or the next year, because the problem of too much debt in the system has not been solved, legendary investor Jim Rogers told CNBC Monday.
The current recovery is just a consequence of the fact that consumption fell so dramatically in 2008 and people have to buy things they need in 2009, Rogers told "Worldwide Exchange."
"How can the solution for debt and consumption be more debt and more consumption? How can that be the solution to our problems?," he said."
in CNBC.com, September 14
The current recovery is just a consequence of the fact that consumption fell so dramatically in 2008 and people have to buy things they need in 2009, Rogers told "Worldwide Exchange."
"How can the solution for debt and consumption be more debt and more consumption? How can that be the solution to our problems?," he said."
in CNBC.com, September 14
"Proteccionism Helped The Great Depression"
"We should be worrying about the next year and next year going forward. This weekend America pulled out another bout of protectionism against China. I'm very worried about it, protectionism helped the Great Depression.
We're going to have some serious problems in currency markets, we're going to have serious problems in the world markets if we see protectionism raising and raising again."
in CNBC.com, September 14
We're going to have some serious problems in currency markets, we're going to have serious problems in the world markets if we see protectionism raising and raising again."
in CNBC.com, September 14
Commodities, China And Real Estate
"Investor Jim Rogers said he’s holding back from further purchases of commodities after prices soared, the Shanghai Securities News reported.
Investors should wait for commodity prices to drop to buy for the long term, the Chinese-language paper cited Rogers as saying at a forum in Guangzhou, Guangdong province.
Rogers said he won’t buy properties in China now because they are too expensive, though rural real estates should yield “great returns” in the next 20 years, the paper reported." in Bloomberg.com
Investors should wait for commodity prices to drop to buy for the long term, the Chinese-language paper cited Rogers as saying at a forum in Guangzhou, Guangdong province.
Rogers said he won’t buy properties in China now because they are too expensive, though rural real estates should yield “great returns” in the next 20 years, the paper reported." in Bloomberg.com
September 13, 2009
Chinese Stocks
Jim Rogers attended the China International Financial Services Conference (CIFSC) held in Guangzhou on September 10. He commented the state of the chinese stock market and the opportunities that may arise in the future:
"Last year in October, he bought shares in China again. But the Chinese stocks he bought were H-shares, B shares, and S shares. He has never bought A shares, since the A shares are too expensive, and perhaps one day, China's H shares, B shares, S shares and A shares will merger as one kind of stocks." in People's Daily Online
"If signs of collapse appear in China's stock market, he would buy more Chinese stocks. He thinks this may occur in the near future, but not now, because although China's stock market is making adjustment, no one is selling Chinese shares in large quantities. Besides, China's stock market rose 80 percent in the past six months, prices have been too high, and I will not buy Chinese stocks at this time. After a year or two, I would consider buying Chinese stocks again." People's Daily Online
"Last year in October, he bought shares in China again. But the Chinese stocks he bought were H-shares, B shares, and S shares. He has never bought A shares, since the A shares are too expensive, and perhaps one day, China's H shares, B shares, S shares and A shares will merger as one kind of stocks." in People's Daily Online
"If signs of collapse appear in China's stock market, he would buy more Chinese stocks. He thinks this may occur in the near future, but not now, because although China's stock market is making adjustment, no one is selling Chinese shares in large quantities. Besides, China's stock market rose 80 percent in the past six months, prices have been too high, and I will not buy Chinese stocks at this time. After a year or two, I would consider buying Chinese stocks again." People's Daily Online
September 12, 2009
Letting Lehman Fail Was Perhaps The Only Thing Governments Have Done Right
Famed hedge fund manager Jimmy Rogers says otherwise, telling The Financial Times: "Letting Lehman fail was perhaps the only thing governments have done right during this whole drama."
The outspoken money manager goes on to say the 1998 rescue of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) was the financial market equivalent of original sin and the resulting moral hazard led to "the madness of serial bubbles."
in www.businessinsider.com
The outspoken money manager goes on to say the 1998 rescue of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) was the financial market equivalent of original sin and the resulting moral hazard led to "the madness of serial bubbles."
in www.businessinsider.com
September 10, 2009
New Book: "A Gift To My Children"
Called the "Indiana Jones of finance" by Time magazine, Jim Rogers is one of the world's most successful investors. He co-founded the Quantum Fund before he was thirty and retired at thirty-seven.
Since then, he has served as a sometime professor of finance at Columbia University's business school, and as a media commentator worldwide. But ask Jim Rogers about his most important venture and he will answer without
hesitation: fatherhood.
A Gift to My Children: A Father's Lessons for Life and Investing (Random House, 85 pages, 16 dollars) is Jim Rogers' love letter to his daughters, Happy and Baby Bee. Reminiscent of The Autobiography of Benjamin Franklin, which was also written by a father to his child, Rogers' book is full of no-nonsense, unsentimental fatherly advice.
This charming volume captures a father's voice - loving, direct, and sometimes
stern - and amplifies his message for all to hear.
Among Jim Rogers' best advice:
- Conduct your own research and trust your own judgment.
- Focus on what you yourself love.
- Be persistent.
- Broaden your horizons and see as much of the world as you can.
- The most important thing you can learn is how to think and question everything you hear.
- Study and learn from history.
- Master more than one language - and make sure one of them is Mandarin.
- Don't panic.
- Take care of yourself and don't neglect the sunscreen.
- Remember that boys need girls more than girls need boys.
Entertaining and principled, Jim Rogers' A Gift to My Children should take
pride of place among such staples of family reading as William Bennett's The
Book of Virtues, Conn Iggulden's Dangerous Book for Boys, and parents'
personally cherished books of inspiration and wisdom.
in Reuters.com
Since then, he has served as a sometime professor of finance at Columbia University's business school, and as a media commentator worldwide. But ask Jim Rogers about his most important venture and he will answer without
hesitation: fatherhood.
A Gift to My Children: A Father's Lessons for Life and Investing (Random House, 85 pages, 16 dollars) is Jim Rogers' love letter to his daughters, Happy and Baby Bee. Reminiscent of The Autobiography of Benjamin Franklin, which was also written by a father to his child, Rogers' book is full of no-nonsense, unsentimental fatherly advice.
This charming volume captures a father's voice - loving, direct, and sometimes
stern - and amplifies his message for all to hear.
Among Jim Rogers' best advice:
- Conduct your own research and trust your own judgment.
- Focus on what you yourself love.
- Be persistent.
- Broaden your horizons and see as much of the world as you can.
- The most important thing you can learn is how to think and question everything you hear.
- Study and learn from history.
- Master more than one language - and make sure one of them is Mandarin.
- Don't panic.
- Take care of yourself and don't neglect the sunscreen.
- Remember that boys need girls more than girls need boys.
Entertaining and principled, Jim Rogers' A Gift to My Children should take
pride of place among such staples of family reading as William Bennett's The
Book of Virtues, Conn Iggulden's Dangerous Book for Boys, and parents'
personally cherished books of inspiration and wisdom.
in Reuters.com
'm Afraid The Next Downturn May Be Worse Than The Last One
"You have these huge problems of government borrowing, spending and printing, and taxing huge amount of money and we're going to pay the price for that before it's all over. Unfortunately, I'm afraid the next downturn may be worse than the last one because of the mistakes government make." in Channel News Asia
September 7, 2009
Investment Style: Long And Short All Around The World
"Ever since I was in the investment business I have always invested in everything, stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities both long and short all around the world. I started reading the commodities pages of the Wall Street Journal when I started reading the WSJ. For some reason I thought they all fitted together." in the Banking Corporation video interview
September 4, 2009
Video Interview, September 2009
Latest Jim Rogers TV interview.
Topics: Investment style: investing long and short everything all over the world, commodities bull market, China, US Dollar.
Topics: Investment style: investing long and short everything all over the world, commodities bull market, China, US Dollar.
Tightning US Commodities Regulations Will Send The Business Elsewhere
"If America shoots itself in the foot, the business is going to go somewhere. The obvious places where the business will migrate to will be Asia." Jim Rogers, Reuters
While Washington's plan to clamp down on its freewheeling derivatives markets has sharpened the appetite for accessing China's three futures exchanges. Trade is up five-fold in the three years to 2008 to hedge growing raw material imports, as the world's fastest growing major economy uses nearly a third of the world's copper, half its steel and imports half of all traded soybeans.
Shanghai's copper futures trade now rivals that of London's LME, and Dalian's soybean volumes already exceed that of Chicago.
While Washington's plan to clamp down on its freewheeling derivatives markets has sharpened the appetite for accessing China's three futures exchanges. Trade is up five-fold in the three years to 2008 to hedge growing raw material imports, as the world's fastest growing major economy uses nearly a third of the world's copper, half its steel and imports half of all traded soybeans.
Shanghai's copper futures trade now rivals that of London's LME, and Dalian's soybean volumes already exceed that of Chicago.
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