January 31, 2009

Jim Rogers Hits and Misses

Jim Rogers has made some fantastic and some horrific investment decisions and financial predictions over the years. Here is a small sample of his best and worst ideas over the years:

"But most of his main investment themes have proved more hit than miss.

Prediction in the late 90s: "Commodities Will Rally"
From the late 1990s he started predicting that commodities, primary products such as metals and farm produce, were in for a decades-long bull run of soaring prices

Verdict: Prices largely soared between 1999 and 2007, though many have since retraced some of their gains;

Prediction: Oil Prices will Top 100 USD: In 2006, when the oil price was about $75 a barrel, he forecast it would smash through the $100 mark

Verdict: Crude rocketed to as high as $140 a barrel by 2008, though it has since fallen back to less than $50

Prediction: "Chinese Stock Market will Soar": He has taken a bullish view of China’s growth prospects for years. Five years ago, he said: “Investing in the Chinese market in 2004 is like investing in the Dow in 1904.” The Dow, or Dow Jones Industrial Average, is the index of US blue chips, which in the following century went up 150 times;

Verdict: While economic growth in China has been spectacular, it hasn’t always translated into huge profits for non-Chinese investors. Shares quadrupled between 2004 and 2007 but have fallen almost all the way back

Prediction: "The dollar is flawed and will fall": He has long been pessimistic about the dollar because of excessive government borrowing, recommending that Americans open foreign bank accounts to preserve their wealth

Verdict: Although now staging a bit of a rally, the dollar has weakened dramatically against the biggest alternative trading currency, the euro, in recent years

Prediction: "Buy Africa", he told investors in 1996, urging them in particular to pile into resource-rich Zimbabwe;

Verdict Catastrophic advice. The Zimbabwe dollar has collapsed in the face of hyper-inflation and the economy is on its knees, leaving foreign investors holding worthless bits of paper.

Prediction: "The Yen will Rally and the Carry Trades will unwind": This was one of his bst advices last year.

Prediction: "Fannie Mae and Fredie Mac will go bust", this was his best shot last year. Right on the money.

Not Optimistic about the Goverment Efforts

"The idea that you can fix a period of excess borrowing and excess consumption by more borrowing and more consumption to me is just ludicrous" JIM ROGERS

Jim Rogers is not very optimistic about the goverment efforts to sort this crisis. Recently, Jim has made some controversial comments on the FOREX markets, regarding the weakness of the british pound.

January 28, 2009

Jim Rogers on the British Pound, Stocks and Obama

Jim Rogers told a British Newspaper that the pound could fall near parity with the dollar in coming years given Britain's increasing debt and lack of economic growth drivers.

Rogers said last week the pound was "finished" and people should avoid investing in Britain, leading to a retort from Prime Minister Gordon Brown that economic policy would not be influenced by speculators.

Sterling weakened against the dollar on Monday to near a 23-year low of $1.3500 reached on Friday. Asked whether he had a call on where the pound would be by year end Rogers said: "No...I'm a very bad short-term trader.

"I suspect it's going to make new lows -- it may take a decade,"


"There's two big holes developing in the UK's balance of payments -- North Sea oil drying up and the financial industry. I don't see anything replacing those two big holes."

Jim Rogers also commented on the new US President, "Obama has got the wrong plans and the wrong people" reiterating he was only positive on China and commodities.

"I'm not buying stocks anywhere -- the world is in recession and it's not going to get better, if politicians keep making mistakes it's going to last longer and longer."

Jim Rogers is a commodities and forex expert with many decades of sucessful trading behind him.

The Euro Won`t be around in 20 Years

The euro will not be around in the next 20 years, but Britain would have been better off had it joined the single European currency when it had a chance, legendary investor Jim Rogers told the UK newspaper METRO.

"Not being in the euro is a competitive disadvantage" Jim Rogers added.

"It makes it more expensive and more cumbersome to do business with the rest of the world. But I am not sure the euro will last 20 years" Jim Rogers noted.

He reiterated his polemic view that the pound will continue to weaken, as the City of London suffers because of the financial crisis and North Sea oil is drying up. Britain is "a deeply indebted nation, the government is spending gigantic amounts of taxpayer money propping up banks which should have been allowed to fail," Jim Rogers explained.

Regarding the end of economic and financial troubles, "We're certainly not out of whatever we're in and whatever we're in is getting worse," Rogers said.

For those worried about their future prospects, his advice was: "if you speak Chinese, go to China. Or try farming. I'm more optimistic about agriculture than any other industry. If not farming, anything to do with raw materials or natural resources."

Follow Jim Rogers trading ideas about currencies, futures and stocks here on Jim Rogers`s Blog. Jim says that the most important investment rule is to buy low and sell high. Most people forget that in the heat of the battle.

Jim Rogers expresses some controversial opinions on forex markets but he has many years of sucessful investment decisions behind him.

January 27, 2009

US Car Industry Should Fail

The U.S. car industry should be allowed to fail, Jim Rogers told UK newspaper Metro.

"Anybody who fails should be allowed to fail" Rogers criticized.

"Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without Hell - it doesn't work otherwise." as Buffett once said.

In a more genric tone Jim commented, "when you have that many excesses in the world, somebody's got to pay the price."

General Motors, Chrysler and Ford should close its doors.

January 26, 2009

Jim Rogers Visits Moscow

Jim Rogers will be in Russia next month for the The Russia Forum 2009. He is a permanent Russia bear.


Thursday, February 5, 2009
2.30pm
The Russia Forum 2009
Moscow World Trade Centre
Russia
www.therussiaforum.com/2009

The rusian stock market has been hit very hard by the international crisis and the fall in commodity prices. The RSX ETF traded in New York is a good ETF to trade and track the russian stock market.

January 24, 2009

UK and the British Pound

Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore- based Rogers Holdings, said the British pound will stay “under pressure” after measures to combat the financial crisis prompted government borrowing to swell.

“The pound sterling is going to be under pressure,”
Rogers said in an interview with Bloomberg Television from Singapore today. “The U.K. hasn’t got much to sell to the world anymore. You have stupendous debts.”

Rogers said that with North Sea oil and gas stocks running dry and financial services freezing up, the U.K. has nothing left to export. Business services and services make up 30 percent, and Britain has had a trade deficit in oil since 2005 because of waning production.

Will the pound fall even further? Jim Rogers thinks it probably will. The pound made a fresh 2 year low against the US dollar and an all time low against the Yen.

The comments have ruffled a few feathers, including it would seem, the Prime Minister's. "If you think we are going to build our policy around the comments of a few speculators who want to make money out of Britain then you are very, very wrong indeed," he told the Today Programme on BBC Radio 4 this morning.

Now two senior City economists have written an open letter to Jim Rogers, outlining their objection to the hedge fund manager comments on the UK.

Jim replied, "If they object to my comments and think the pound is going up they should buy the pound. If they think the City of London is going up they should buy the City of London. If they think the UK is going up they should buy the UK. I can't prove I'm right but the markets will tell us in five years."

When trading FOREX be sure to look for the lowest spreads and the lowest comissions. High spreads and big comissions completely kill your trading account.

January 22, 2009

Jim Rogers on Malaysia

With plenty of natural resources, Malaysia is in a good position than most countries in the current economic environment, Jim Rogers said.

“The Malaysian economy is natural resource-based so you are in a better position than many countries. And therefore, your currency is better positioned than other currencies,” Rogers said at the Asian Financial Forum.

“My main problem with Malaysia is that your politicians don’t seem to get it right. It’s a fabulous country and it should have a fantastic future. Get politicians who understand how the economy works and adapt and adjust. Malaysia should be and could be a wildly successful and rich country,” he commented.

ABOUT COMMODITIES

“Fundamentals for a lot of industries are impaired currently. But, things that are not impaired are commodities. The fundamentals of commodities in the current environment are enhanced as supplies are short,” said Rogers, adding that the idea of making money today is through investments in raw materials and commodities.

He is also bullish on the yen but is bearish on the US dollar, bonds and stocks. “I’m not buying into any markets right now because there are problems still to come,” he said. Jim Rogers was expecting a big rally in stocks, but seems to be a lot more cautious now. Follow all Jim Rogers videos, interviews and comments here on Jim Rogers Blog.

If you trade ETF`s or stocks be sure to look for the lowest comissions. Slippage and high comissions are a trader`s enemy. There is a good Malaysia ETF with the ticker symbol: EWM.

January 21, 2009

Sell the British Pound

Jim Rogers said the “U.K. is finished” and investors should sell the british pound.

“I would urge you to sell any sterling you might have,” said Rogers. “It’s finished. I hate to say it, but I would not put any money in the U.K.”

Rogers says that the UK has nothing to sell to the world once the North Sea Oil ends.


“I would urge you to sell any sterling you might have,” Mr Rogers advised his army of investment followers. “It's finished. I hate to say it, but I would not put any money in the UK.”

The reaction was instant - though it is impossible to say how much was attributable to Mr Rogers. The pound slumped, by almost 4 per cent at one point, falling to a seven-year low against the dollar and an all-time low against the Japanese yen.

Not since Black Wednesday in 1992, when the currency was expelled from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, had there been such a steep fall in a day. That move was caudsed by Soros and Rogers hedge fund.

January 19, 2009

Jim Rogers was up for the Year in 2008

Jim Rogers said that his investments against U.S. investment banks, the two mortgage providers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the yen kept his portfolio in the positive last year, but the rest of his investments suffered. (airlines, commodities, China and Taiwan)

One of Jim Rogers trading secrets is to trade very little. Low slippage and low comissions on stocks, futures and forex are key to long term sucessful investing.

China is going to be the new centre of the world

"This is going to be the new centre of the world, not just the financial but the political world," Jim Rogers said at the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong.

Jim Rogers has been very bullish on China for many years now, and is buying chinese shares again on this major downturn.

January 18, 2009

Jim Rogers Latest Interview

This is Jim Rogers`s latest interview. Jim talks about inflation, deflation in some raw materials and property prices, sugar prices, commodities, british pound, us dollar, China to stop buying US Bonds, water treatment stocks, china stock market and travelling.

Do you think the period of forced liquidation has ended or does it still have a ways to go?

Rogers: I’m sure it has not ended. It certainly has not ended for many asset classes and it probably has not ended for most. It may be over for a few things but it still has a long way to go.

As you’ve said many times, the US government is printing a lot of money right now, when do you think inflation will come around and bite us?

Rogers: Well there is inflation now in many things. There’s temporary deflation in raw material prices and in some property. But throughout history, whenever you’ve had gigantic printing of money and spending of borrowed money, it has always led to higher prices. Unless something is dramatic, it’s going to happen again. When? I don’t know. It’s already happening in some things. I don’t know if you’ve bought any sugar recently or some other things, prices are up and that will continue and it will get worse.

You’ve been bullish on commodities for a long time, recently you said you’re buying the Rogers Metal Index. Do you think that the Obama stimulus plan will create more demand for commodities?

Rogers: Well of course, anything that causes a revival of economic activity causes a revival of demand for everything including commodities. I mean if you’re gonna build bridges you’ve got to build them out of something you cannot build virtual bridges you have to build real bridges, etc.

You’ve said that over the long term, the US dollar is doomed. What are your thoughts on the British Pound?

Rogers: More doomed. It will disappear sooner. If it weren’t for the North Sea, the British Pound would have already disappeared. It’s more doomed. The UK has been exporting oil for 26 years; within the decade, the UK will be a net importer of oil again, and they have nothing else to sell to the world once the oil dries up.

Do you think China will scale back on buying US bonds? And if that happens, how will it affect the US economy and the US dollar?

Rogers: Well if I were China, I would scale back. If I were everybody, I would scale back. The US bonds yield virtually nothing, the dollar is a flawed currency, inflation is coming, higher interest rates are coming. I would think everybody would be scaling back including China. We’re going to have higher interest rates down the road because somebody’s gonna scale back. If not China, Japan or Korea, or who knows, somebody.

You’ve been buying Chinese stocks for many years already, now that China’s economy is doing badly and exports are decreasing significantly, what sectors are you looking at in China?

Rogers: Agriculture, water treatment, people who build power generation, people who build infrastructure, tourism. Many areas of the Chinese economy will continue to do well no matter what happens to the world economy. Many will suffer; anybody who sells to Wal-mart or retailers in America is going to suffer, others will do extremely well no matter what.

My last question, on a personal note, do you miss traveling around the world for fun like you’ve done several times before?

Rogers: No, because now I have two little girls and they’re more fun than anything. I hope someday that I will travel around the world with them for fun. But at the moment, watching them grow up and helping them grow up is more fun than anything I can imagine.

January 14, 2009

Jim Rogers on US Treasuries

"If I were the Chinese, I wouldn't buy another single US. government bond" JIM ROGERS

Long Term Treasuries have probably already reversed trend as we can see in this chart:


Follow all Jim Rogers investment activity, his buying and his selling here on Jim Rogers Blog.

January 13, 2009

Long Term Bonds

"If I were the Chinese, I wouldn't buy another single U.S. government bond," Jim said to Reuters.

"I can't imagine anybody is going to give the U.S. government money for 30 years at 2.5 percent or even 4 percent or 4.5 percent. It's mind boggling to me."

China in 2008 became the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, surpassing Japan.

"All the big creditors are going to be slowly cutting back ...more and more diversification against and away from the U.S. dollar -- and away from long-term bonds," Rogers added.

One of Jim Rogers strongest ideas for 2009 is to sell short long term US Government Bonds. You can sell the TBT Etf or sell short ZB Futures from the CBOT.

January 10, 2009

Jim Rogers: China

"As the global financial crisis has unfurled, I have been buying shares in Chinese firms, in agriculture, water, infrastructure and tourism." JIM ROGERS


"Mao Zedong ruined agriculture. China has to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to repair and revitalise it," he said.

Jim Rogers will speak in an Hong Kong financial conference later this month. China and agriculture are Jim`s favourite investments. Agriculture has been performing very well recently.

Jim Rogers has correctly predicted almost every major trend in the last few decades. Jim predicted the last oil and commodities bull market, the collapse of the carry trade and the yen surge. Jim Rogers has been buying chinese stocks since 1988 and is buying more now acknowledging China`s great potential. If you want to get rich investing in the markets, listening to Jim Rogers ideas will greatly help you. Jim Rogers favourite investment rule is to "Buy Panic and Sell Hysteria".

January 5, 2009

Time to Short the Long Bond?

"I was shorting the long bond in October and in November but I had to cover. I plan to sell them short again along the line. Bonds are the last bubble, its clearly a bubble. Everybody is pumping bonds like crazy." Jim Rogers

Marc Faber also sees a big bubble on the Treasury Market, on the Long Term Government Bonds. In Marc Faber`s BLOG there is a nice article regarding the Bond Bubble and a related Barron`s article.

January 3, 2009

Buy China

Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said he’s been buying shares of Chinese companies even as growth in the world’s fourth-largest economy slows.

Rogers, 66, started buying Chinese shares in 1988 and is now favoring equities traded in Hong Kong and Singapore that are cheaper than yuan-denominated stocks in Shanghai.

China is slowing but “some parts of the Chinese economy will be totally unaffected by what happens in the West,” Rogers said in an interview in Hong Kong today. “I started buying in October again. I never sold any Chinese shares.”

Jim Rogers is a long term bull on China and has written a book about investing in China: "A Bull in China". Besides China, Taiwan is one of Jim`s favourite stock markets for the next few years. China and Taiwan increasing political ties are a major driver for future taiwanese growth. In Jim Rogers Blog you can track all his investment activity and trading.