Oil has been all over the map in the last year in terms of price. What do you think is its fair value?
Rogers: If I were that smart, I'd be rich, wouldn't I? If you find somebody [who knows], please give him or her my phone number. With commodities, the way the academics talk about it, it's the clearing price—it's the price at which supply and demand come into balance. You're going to have enough coming to market to meet whatever demand there is, and that will be the price. Unfortunately, that price never existed because with open markets, prices fluctuate a lot. I know it's much higher than now because right now oil reserves around the world are declining at a fairly steady rate. At present rate of consumption and production, we won't have any oil in 20 years at any price. So I know it's got to be higher in order to bring out more supplies of energy and to reduce consumption of energy. What is that price? I don't know, but it's a lot higher than where it is now.
Now that doesn't mean that oil can't go down by 50 percent next year. If suddenly the U.K. goes bankrupt, I promise you oil will go down by 50 percent next year, but if America bombs Iran, oil will go up by 100 percent next year. So it depends, but over the next decade, the surprise is going to be how high the price of oil stays and how high it goes.