If you want to know what I’m doing now, I’ve been buying the yen, as I’ve talked about on Bloomberg before. I’ve been buying commodities, especially agriculture. I’m selling short the United States long-bond, the long-term government bond. Buying some Swiss francs. A little bit of China. A few Chinese shares, a few Taiwan shares. And I’m watching. It’s an interesting time.
Jim Rogers Outlook for Commodities
Historically, what comes out of periods like this, and lead the new market, will be the things where the fundamentals are unimpaired. The only things where the fundamentals are unimpaired right now are commodities. I mean, fundamentals for commodities are being improved by all of this… So if you want to make money, you buy the things where the fundamentals are still good and positive, and that’s how you make money…
The world’s certainly in recession, and there is a cyclical slowdown. But the secular supply is being damaged even more. Your not going to be able to get any— farmers cannot get loans to expand. Nobody’s going to give you money to open a zinc mine in the next decade. So when we come out of this cyclical decline, you’re going to have even less supply, and the bull market in commodities is going to resume, and that will be the best place to have money.
Jim Rogers Outlook for Gold and Agriculture
I have gold. If gold goes down, I’ll buy more. If it goes up, I’ll buy more. Gold is in a bull market, which has got years to go. But I expect to make more money in agriculture, Nina, than I do in gold. But I own it. Bought some yesterday, as a matter of fact.
October 27, 2008
October 23, 2008
Jim Rogers Conference in New York
Jim Rogers will speak in New York next month. The conference is about Commodities.
Inside Commodities:
Positioning Your Portfolio in an Inflationary Environment
November 3, 2008
New York Stock Exchange
Inside Commodities:
Positioning Your Portfolio in an Inflationary Environment
November 3, 2008
New York Stock Exchange
Liquidation Phase
"We have had 8-9 periods of forced liquidation over the past 100-150 years wherein everything was liquidated without regard to fundamentals. This is such a period"
This is how Jim pictures the current situation. Its not a deflation phase because its only temporary due to margin calls and forced liquidations. Jim Rogers is bullish on agriculture, water treatment stocks and commodities in general.
´
Regarding the water treatment stocks, there is an international ETF related to this theme:
PowerShares Global Water Portfolio (ETF), with the ticker PIO.
This is how Jim pictures the current situation. Its not a deflation phase because its only temporary due to margin calls and forced liquidations. Jim Rogers is bullish on agriculture, water treatment stocks and commodities in general.
´
Regarding the water treatment stocks, there is an international ETF related to this theme:
PowerShares Global Water Portfolio (ETF), with the ticker PIO.
October 22, 2008
Jim Rogers Video Interview: October 2008
Throughout history, whenever you've had gigantic amounts of paper money created, it's led to inflation down the road. Things are going down now because of forced liquidation but that's not deflation, that's temporary, Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings said.
VIDEO LINK 1
"The world is unfolding. The American government keeps making mistake after mistake after mistake. Other governments do too. Unfortunately this is going to be a mess," Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings said Wednesday.
VIDEO LINK 2
VIDEO LINK 3
You can watch all Jim Rogers Videos here on Jim Rogers`s Investments Blogsite. Jim speaks about 1929.
Rogers talks about Refco, segregated accounts, counterparty risks and brokers. He even talks about Milton Friedman ans his wife.
VIDEO LINK 1
"The world is unfolding. The American government keeps making mistake after mistake after mistake. Other governments do too. Unfortunately this is going to be a mess," Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings said Wednesday.
VIDEO LINK 2
VIDEO LINK 3
You can watch all Jim Rogers Videos here on Jim Rogers`s Investments Blogsite. Jim speaks about 1929.
Rogers talks about Refco, segregated accounts, counterparty risks and brokers. He even talks about Milton Friedman ans his wife.
Latest Jim Rogers Commentary
Here is the latest Jim Rogers`s comments on this credit crunch crisis. Agriculture seems to be the way to go.
The fundamentals for commodities were not affected by government policies that are propagating inflation, Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Wednesday.
"I bought more agriculture this week," Rogers told "Squawk Box Europe." "What's happening is that there will be less supply of everything if we ever come out of (the credit crunch). Nobody can get a loan for a zinc mine or, long term, increase crop production."
If history is any guide, things to buy are things that are doing fine right now like water treatment companies in Asia or agriculture, Rogers added.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke should resign for keeping alive "zombie banks" that should be allowed to fail, he said.
The Japanese government refused to let financial institutions fail in the 1990s, Rogers said.
"It's 18 years later and their stock market is 75 or 80 percent below what it was 18 years ago," he added.
Rogers also said that interest-rate cuts are coming.
"I know we are going to get aggressive rate cuts everywhere, that's why I'm long short-term government bonds in the U.S., but shorting long-term government bonds because it's not going to help, it's going to add to inflation," he said.
The fundamentals for commodities were not affected by government policies that are propagating inflation, Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Wednesday.
"I bought more agriculture this week," Rogers told "Squawk Box Europe." "What's happening is that there will be less supply of everything if we ever come out of (the credit crunch). Nobody can get a loan for a zinc mine or, long term, increase crop production."
If history is any guide, things to buy are things that are doing fine right now like water treatment companies in Asia or agriculture, Rogers added.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke should resign for keeping alive "zombie banks" that should be allowed to fail, he said.
The Japanese government refused to let financial institutions fail in the 1990s, Rogers said.
"It's 18 years later and their stock market is 75 or 80 percent below what it was 18 years ago," he added.
Rogers also said that interest-rate cuts are coming.
"I know we are going to get aggressive rate cuts everywhere, that's why I'm long short-term government bonds in the U.S., but shorting long-term government bonds because it's not going to help, it's going to add to inflation," he said.
October 21, 2008
Commodities Bull will last even longer
Latest Jim Rogers`s comments on this financial crisis:
The commodity bull market will last longer as a consequence of the global financial crisis, Jim Rogers CEO of Rogers Holdings, told Commodity Online in an exclusive interview.
”We have had eight or nine periods of forced liquidation over the past 100 to 150 years wherein everything was liquidated without regard to fundamentals. This is such a period,” Rogers said.
Rogers, said the commodities market is these days hit by the prospects of growth slowdown in countries like China and economic pessimism in the US and Europe.
”Historically the things which have come out best on the other side are things where the fundamental have been unimpaired. Commodities are the only thing I know with unimpaired fundamentals,” he said.
”The cyclical demand for commodities may slow, but the secular supply will be badly affected so the commodity bull market will last longer and go further in the end,” he added.
"I have an enormous amount of cash and I've been using it to buy more Japanese Yen, more Swiss Francs, more agricultural products....There's a liquidation phase going on, where everything is being liquidated. They're selling everything in sight," Rogers said last week speaking on CNBC.
"In a period like this the way you make money coming out of it is to own the things were the fundamentals have not been impaired."
The commodity bull market will last longer as a consequence of the global financial crisis, Jim Rogers CEO of Rogers Holdings, told Commodity Online in an exclusive interview.
”We have had eight or nine periods of forced liquidation over the past 100 to 150 years wherein everything was liquidated without regard to fundamentals. This is such a period,” Rogers said.
Rogers, said the commodities market is these days hit by the prospects of growth slowdown in countries like China and economic pessimism in the US and Europe.
”Historically the things which have come out best on the other side are things where the fundamental have been unimpaired. Commodities are the only thing I know with unimpaired fundamentals,” he said.
”The cyclical demand for commodities may slow, but the secular supply will be badly affected so the commodity bull market will last longer and go further in the end,” he added.
"I have an enormous amount of cash and I've been using it to buy more Japanese Yen, more Swiss Francs, more agricultural products....There's a liquidation phase going on, where everything is being liquidated. They're selling everything in sight," Rogers said last week speaking on CNBC.
"In a period like this the way you make money coming out of it is to own the things were the fundamentals have not been impaired."
October 16, 2008
Jim Rogers is Shorting 30 Year Bonds
“The U.S. government is taking on gigantic amounts of debt,” Rogers said in an interview in Singapore, where he lives. “They’re printing gigantic amounts of money. Printing money has always led to more inflation. The last bubble in the world that I can find is long-term U.S. government bonds.”
Rogers said he is “shorting” 30-year debt, or betting prices will fall.
Rogers said he is “shorting” 30-year debt, or betting prices will fall.
Jim Rogers in CNBC (13th October)
The current rescue plans, which will force governments to issue more debt, print money and flood the markets with liquidity, will flare up inflation after the crisis is over and will create worse problems, Jim Rogers CEO of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC.
"We're setting the stage for when we come out of this of a massive inflation holocaust," he said.
And the plans are unlikely to fend off a severe economic downturn, as the crisis starts affecting all walks of life.
"We had the worst excesses we had in credit markets in world history. We're going to have to take some pain," Rogers said.
"Many people bought four or five houses with no money down and no job.....You think we'll just say well, that's too bad, we'll start over and nobody loses their job? Be realistic."
"What about all the people in countries that minded their manners, saved their money, didn't get overextended and now all of a sudden they're being asked to bail out a bunch of guys on Wall Street who were incompetent at best and some of them crooks?"
"I thought it outrageous that anybody has to step in a bail out a bunch of 29 year olds driving Maseratis," he said.
There are not many safe havens in the volatile markets, he said.
"I have an enormous amount of cash and I've been using it to buy more Japanese Yen, more Swiss Francs, more agricultural products....There's a liquidation phase going on, where everything is being liquidated. They're selling everything in sight."
"In a period like this the way you make money coming out of it is to own the things were the fundamentals have not been impaired," Rogers added.
"I've been buying agricultural commodities. I bought some a couple of days ago. It's down today. It did not matter, I bought them. I covered shorts yesterday," Rogers said on CNBC.
Rogers told CNBC's Maria Bartiromo that the financial markets are in a liquidation phase. "Commodities are only thing that I can see that will not be impaired.
"The way to solve this problem is to let people go bankrupt," Rogers said.
"Then you will hit bottom and then you start over. The people who are sound will take over the assets from the people who aren't sound and we will start over. This is the way the world has worked for a few thousand years."
"We're setting the stage for when we come out of this of a massive inflation holocaust," he said.
And the plans are unlikely to fend off a severe economic downturn, as the crisis starts affecting all walks of life.
"We had the worst excesses we had in credit markets in world history. We're going to have to take some pain," Rogers said.
"Many people bought four or five houses with no money down and no job.....You think we'll just say well, that's too bad, we'll start over and nobody loses their job? Be realistic."
"What about all the people in countries that minded their manners, saved their money, didn't get overextended and now all of a sudden they're being asked to bail out a bunch of guys on Wall Street who were incompetent at best and some of them crooks?"
"I thought it outrageous that anybody has to step in a bail out a bunch of 29 year olds driving Maseratis," he said.
There are not many safe havens in the volatile markets, he said.
"I have an enormous amount of cash and I've been using it to buy more Japanese Yen, more Swiss Francs, more agricultural products....There's a liquidation phase going on, where everything is being liquidated. They're selling everything in sight."
"In a period like this the way you make money coming out of it is to own the things were the fundamentals have not been impaired," Rogers added.
"I've been buying agricultural commodities. I bought some a couple of days ago. It's down today. It did not matter, I bought them. I covered shorts yesterday," Rogers said on CNBC.
Rogers told CNBC's Maria Bartiromo that the financial markets are in a liquidation phase. "Commodities are only thing that I can see that will not be impaired.
"The way to solve this problem is to let people go bankrupt," Rogers said.
"Then you will hit bottom and then you start over. The people who are sound will take over the assets from the people who aren't sound and we will start over. This is the way the world has worked for a few thousand years."
Jim Rogers Comments : 13 October
Most recent comments on the markets by Jim Rogers.
Legendary global investor Jim Rogers says the bail-outs being conducted by the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury are "unleashing an inflationary holocaust' on us all.
The US runs massive current and fiscal account deficits; therefore, the trillions of dollars involved in the bail-outs will inevitably be printed as the only realistic way to pay for them is via inflation.
To put $3 trillion into perspective, it took the US over 200 years to reach approximately $10 trillion in money supply and no more than 12 weeks to commit to another $3 trillion and counting.
Jim Rogers continues to advocate investments in agriculture commodities and farmland in selected markets - including Canada. As part of his belief that western Canadian agriculture has a bright future ahead of it.
October 6, 2008
Jim Rogers Interview (INDIAN Newspaper)
NDTV: Do you believe in the theory of commodity cycle cooling off?
Jim Rogers: There is no question that commodity prices have cooled off, but that is the way the market works. You always have consolidation and correction. Three times in the last nine years, oil prices have gone down by 50 per cent, and each time it was not the end of the bull market. If suddenly someone discovers huge oil reserves then the bull market is still on.
NDTV: But how long the bear market in the current commodity space will continue?
Jim Rogers: In the 1970s, gold went down 50 per cent, but after two years it turned around and went up 850 per cent. So I don’t know how long this correction is going to last. If the worldwide economic problem continues for a while then it can last for a longer period.
NDTV: But everybody is talking about global slowdown, so if there is no demand then how will commodity price rise?
Jim Rogers: They will have a consolidation but if you are suggesting the world in a perpetual economic decline, then we will never have any bull market.
NDTV: Regarding the bailout of mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, you vocally criticized and said that ‘US is bigger communist than China.”
Jim Rogers: I would call it ‘pure socialism.’ It is welfare or socialism for the rich. It is absurd! The US national debt is $5 trillion but within a week the government doubled the national debt. On September 30, the total US federal debt passed the $10 trillion mark, which I and my children will pay off. It is bad for the US economy, dollar and inflation. The government is bailing out the Wall Street, which is not for me but for a few guys at troubled banks.
NDTV: What if somebody doesn’t bail out troubled banks as the exposure is not just limited to US financials but it is across the world?
Jim Rogers: We have had banks going bankrupt for so many years. You think the world will come to an end just because banks go bankrupt, it will not. There maybe disruptions for a while but it is not the end of the world.
NDTV: Will you buy when there’s blood on the street?
Jim Rogers: If the US and other world stock markets did have a selling climate then I would go for it.
NDTV: But what will you buy in terms of equity asset class?
Jim Rogers: Well, it depends on what goes down the most. I would probably buy stocks of airlines, water treatment, agriculture, and other recession proof companies. The way you are going to get rich in the side market is define by the companies that come through hard times with good results. Those are the companies when you have next bull market that you make a fortune.
NDTV: Are you saying that decoupling would work?
Jim Rogers: When the largest economy in the world gets into trouble then it would also affect anyone associated with it. If you are doing business with the largest US retailer Wal-Mart then you may suffer during this phase of slowdown. But if you involved in water treatment business in India or China, then you don’t have to worry about. It is because the business has nothing to do with the US. If you are involved in agriculture business in Asia then who cares about America.
NDTV: In India what excites you the most? As an investment story what will convince you to come and perhaps endorse India for the future? Also what worries you in terms of economic policies?
Jim Rogers: I always tell people that there is no country in the world that has the breadth and depth of culture like India. The Indian government said that inflation is caused because of commodity trade, which I think is quite absurd. India should be the greatest agriculture nation in the world, not the America. If I wanted to buy shares in India then I just couldn’t go to a broker and open an account. India has got some insane regulations which prevent India from an open and free economy.
NDTV: What will tempt you Jim to come in and buy India story despite all those problems?
Jim Rogers: If I can find shares that I can trade freely and equally then probably I have to be outside of India. I am very bullish on tourism, agriculture and water treatment sectors. These are spectacular parts of Indian economy that despite the government could have a great future.
NDTV: You partnered with the legendary George Soros to co-found the Quantum Fund in 1970. Over the next 10 years, the fund gained 4,200 per cent. In the same period, the S&P returned 47 per cent. So what did you do?
Jim Rogers: I performed like an ordinary investor. I worked very hard and did enormous research to find out sectors that are going to do best. Then I invested a lot of money into those sectors. I used a lot of leverage and it worked.
NDTV: If you believe that commodity and equities work in opposite directions then will it not make more sense to buy directly into commodities rather than buying commodity stocks?
Jim Rogers: Over the past many decades commodities and stocks have gone in separate ways. If you can balance your portfolio then one of the best things you can use is commodities. If you are a good stock picker then you are much better off buying commodity stocks than commodities. Natural gas prices may triple but if you find the right natural gas stock, then you can make 10-15 times of your money.
NDTV: It has been a pleasure to talk to you!
Jim Rogers: Thanks a lot!
Jim Rogers: There is no question that commodity prices have cooled off, but that is the way the market works. You always have consolidation and correction. Three times in the last nine years, oil prices have gone down by 50 per cent, and each time it was not the end of the bull market. If suddenly someone discovers huge oil reserves then the bull market is still on.
NDTV: But how long the bear market in the current commodity space will continue?
Jim Rogers: In the 1970s, gold went down 50 per cent, but after two years it turned around and went up 850 per cent. So I don’t know how long this correction is going to last. If the worldwide economic problem continues for a while then it can last for a longer period.
NDTV: But everybody is talking about global slowdown, so if there is no demand then how will commodity price rise?
Jim Rogers: They will have a consolidation but if you are suggesting the world in a perpetual economic decline, then we will never have any bull market.
NDTV: Regarding the bailout of mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, you vocally criticized and said that ‘US is bigger communist than China.”
Jim Rogers: I would call it ‘pure socialism.’ It is welfare or socialism for the rich. It is absurd! The US national debt is $5 trillion but within a week the government doubled the national debt. On September 30, the total US federal debt passed the $10 trillion mark, which I and my children will pay off. It is bad for the US economy, dollar and inflation. The government is bailing out the Wall Street, which is not for me but for a few guys at troubled banks.
NDTV: What if somebody doesn’t bail out troubled banks as the exposure is not just limited to US financials but it is across the world?
Jim Rogers: We have had banks going bankrupt for so many years. You think the world will come to an end just because banks go bankrupt, it will not. There maybe disruptions for a while but it is not the end of the world.
NDTV: Will you buy when there’s blood on the street?
Jim Rogers: If the US and other world stock markets did have a selling climate then I would go for it.
NDTV: But what will you buy in terms of equity asset class?
Jim Rogers: Well, it depends on what goes down the most. I would probably buy stocks of airlines, water treatment, agriculture, and other recession proof companies. The way you are going to get rich in the side market is define by the companies that come through hard times with good results. Those are the companies when you have next bull market that you make a fortune.
NDTV: Are you saying that decoupling would work?
Jim Rogers: When the largest economy in the world gets into trouble then it would also affect anyone associated with it. If you are doing business with the largest US retailer Wal-Mart then you may suffer during this phase of slowdown. But if you involved in water treatment business in India or China, then you don’t have to worry about. It is because the business has nothing to do with the US. If you are involved in agriculture business in Asia then who cares about America.
NDTV: In India what excites you the most? As an investment story what will convince you to come and perhaps endorse India for the future? Also what worries you in terms of economic policies?
Jim Rogers: I always tell people that there is no country in the world that has the breadth and depth of culture like India. The Indian government said that inflation is caused because of commodity trade, which I think is quite absurd. India should be the greatest agriculture nation in the world, not the America. If I wanted to buy shares in India then I just couldn’t go to a broker and open an account. India has got some insane regulations which prevent India from an open and free economy.
NDTV: What will tempt you Jim to come in and buy India story despite all those problems?
Jim Rogers: If I can find shares that I can trade freely and equally then probably I have to be outside of India. I am very bullish on tourism, agriculture and water treatment sectors. These are spectacular parts of Indian economy that despite the government could have a great future.
NDTV: You partnered with the legendary George Soros to co-found the Quantum Fund in 1970. Over the next 10 years, the fund gained 4,200 per cent. In the same period, the S&P returned 47 per cent. So what did you do?
Jim Rogers: I performed like an ordinary investor. I worked very hard and did enormous research to find out sectors that are going to do best. Then I invested a lot of money into those sectors. I used a lot of leverage and it worked.
NDTV: If you believe that commodity and equities work in opposite directions then will it not make more sense to buy directly into commodities rather than buying commodity stocks?
Jim Rogers: Over the past many decades commodities and stocks have gone in separate ways. If you can balance your portfolio then one of the best things you can use is commodities. If you are a good stock picker then you are much better off buying commodity stocks than commodities. Natural gas prices may triple but if you find the right natural gas stock, then you can make 10-15 times of your money.
NDTV: It has been a pleasure to talk to you!
Jim Rogers: Thanks a lot!
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