Pieces of a Jim Rogers to the Dow Jones Newswire. In his most recent interview he talks about oil, grains and ethanol.
Renowned investor Jim Rogers thinks it's laughable that some analysts are suggesting the bull market in commodities may be over,but it's nothing he hasn't heard before in his nearly 40 years in the business.
"People have been telling me for seven years that the bull market in commodities is over, practically every time we have a correction, and I suspect they'll be saying it for at least another seven years. The bull market is not over yet - it's had a big correction but it's not over yet," Rogers told Dow Jones Newswires by telephone.
Asked if going long commodities is a wise investment at this stage, Rogers replied: "If you're talking about today, I don't know. But if you're talking about over the next decade, yes.
"The price of many commodities is going to be much higher in 10 years than it is today," he predicted.
Since reaching its highs of $147.90 a barrel on July 11, September crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of Wednesday's $126.77 close has lost 14% of its value, which has many commodity traders spooked.
But there is very little new production coming on stream, with the exception of a major offshore find in Brazil, but that's a drop in the bucket compared to global demand. Even the "wildest bulls" say the Brazil find would add the equivalent of about nine months of supply to the marketplace, Rogers said. The world uses 86 million barrels of oil every day.
"The bull market in oil started in 1999...and in the last nine years the oil market has gone down over 40% three times. Was that the end of the bull market?" he asked rhetorically.
"Come on, you're talking to people who don't have a clue about the markets," Rogers said.
He contends that limited supplies and strengthening demand will continue to support the oil market in the long term.
"Every oil country in the world has declining reserves, and nearly every oil company has declining reserves. Just ask these people where the oil is.
"Please tell me where all the supply is coming from that's going to end the bull market," Rogers said.
Gold futures have also declined in recent weeks, pressured by the drop in oil, speculative selling and a U.S. dollar showing signs of strengthening. September gold hit a 4 1/2-week low Wednesday.
In 1976, gold futures hit a low of $101.00 an ounce on the monthly continuation chart and then in 1979-80 shot up approximately eight-fold to reach a high of $875.00, according to a monthly continuation chart. The market subsequently declined 66% over the next two years, bottoming out at $295.00, leading many analysts to declare the surge in gold was finished.
"Everybody said, 'Well, the bull market is over; that was just a fad.' They called it a fad in those days," said Rogers.
Fast-forward to March 2008 and gold futures reached a historic high of $1,017.50. Prices have fallen since and on Wednesday of this week September closed at $902.90, an 11% decline but nothing to throw in the towel over, he argued.
Rogers is also bullish on grain commodities for the next 10 years, citing the decline in land devoted to wheat production over the last 31 years and the lowest ratio of food stocks to consumption in at least 50 to 60 years.
Wheat harvested area in the U.S. has declined 28 million acres since its peak in 1981, as wheat lost its competitiveness to crops such as corn and soybeans. The long-term outlook for U.S. wheat points to a slightly smaller planted area, rather than expansion, the U.S. Agriculture Department said.
The world's population is expected to grow by one-third over the next 30 years with more than 95% of the increase concentrated in developing countries, where pressure on land and water are already intense, the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization said.
"We do know that the world has been consuming more food than it's produced for at least the last seven years. And we do know we're burning a lot of our agricultural products in our fuel tanks now," said Rogers, a development he argues is "ludicrous" given the relative inefficiency of converting grain to ethanol versus other feedstocks like sugarcane.
Besides being inefficient, using feed grain for energy drives up demand, which in turn raises prices and creates hardship for livestock producers.
"It's a totally absurd solution," said Rogers.
July 30, 2008
July 29, 2008
Investing in China
Jim Rogers has said that he is looking to buy China stocks on the dips.
To enter the chinese stock markt there are several alternatives ETF`s:
1) Morgan Stanley China (CAF), a China pure play
2) iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI), chinese big caps
They both took a beating recently,
To enter the chinese stock markt there are several alternatives ETF`s:
1) Morgan Stanley China (CAF), a China pure play
2) iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI), chinese big caps
They both took a beating recently,
July 28, 2008
Shortlist of Jim Rogers Investment Ideas
In his recent interviews Jim Rogers highlighted some interesting Investing Ideas:
- Short US Government Bonds, because the Long Bonds will fall in price has inflation picks up and the US bails out more and more financial institucions making the bonds suspect down the line;
- Long Term Interest Rates will go up; US Debt will be Downgraded sooner or later;
- Dollar: Will go down for years to come but can have a rally anytime because everybody is pessimistic on the dollar right now;
- Buy Agriculture
- Buy International Airlines
- Buy Taiwan and China if a Sell Off occurs;
- Short US Government Bonds, because the Long Bonds will fall in price has inflation picks up and the US bails out more and more financial institucions making the bonds suspect down the line;
- Long Term Interest Rates will go up; US Debt will be Downgraded sooner or later;
- Dollar: Will go down for years to come but can have a rally anytime because everybody is pessimistic on the dollar right now;
- Buy Agriculture
- Buy International Airlines
- Buy Taiwan and China if a Sell Off occurs;
July 27, 2008
Jim Rogers: China and Taiwan
Jim Rogers is looking at the Chinese and Taiwanese stock markets.
Investment guru Jim Rogers recently told CNBC that he has begun buying Chinese stocks again after their recent decline. He sees Taiwan and China as the top two stock markets in the world now.
Investment guru Jim Rogers recently told CNBC that he has begun buying Chinese stocks again after their recent decline. He sees Taiwan and China as the top two stock markets in the world now.
Jim Rogers Video : Fannie and Freddie (July 2008)
Most recent Jim Rogers interview on Bloomberg. Jim talks about Fannie, Freddie, oil the dollar and recomends shorting US Bonds. Fantastic investment video.
PART 2
Jim Rogers talks on Bloomberg about Fannie and Freddie. All latest Jim Rogers`s video interviews and podcasts here.
Jim Rogers is a legendary investor and probably the best investor of our time. Follow all Jim Rogers `s recommendations here on his blog.
PART 2
Jim Rogers talks on Bloomberg about Fannie and Freddie. All latest Jim Rogers`s video interviews and podcasts here.
Jim Rogers is a legendary investor and probably the best investor of our time. Follow all Jim Rogers `s recommendations here on his blog.
Article about former Jim Rogers Partners.
Nice article about George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller. Soros and Jum Rogers formed the Quantum Fund in the sixties.
ARTICLE LINK
In his enjoyable book, The New Market Wizards, Jack Schwager interviewed Stanley Druckenmiller, who formerly managed money for George Soros and later went on to found Duquesne Capital.
One part of the interview that stood out to me is Druckenmiller's recipe for long term success. In his words:
George Soros has a philosophy that I have also adopted: The way to build long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs.
You can be far more aggressive when you're making good profits. Many managers, once they're up 30 or 40 percent, will book their year [i.e., trade very cautiously for the remainder of the year so as not to jeopardize the very good return that has already been realized]. The way to attain truly superior long-term returns is to grind it out until you're up 30 or 40 percent, and then if you have the convictions, go for a 100 percent year.
If you can put together a few near-100 percent years and avoid down years, then you can achieve really outstanding long-term returns.
A few things interest me here. First is an outright recommendation to bow to the short term and manage performance so that it fits within the calendar year. I guess that's driven by the way money managers are paid and evaluated by others.
The idea of forcing the long term average up not through consistent annual performance but through sporadic "home run" years was not the advice I expected. I've never heard a leading investor propose the idea so forcefully before.
In Market Wizards, another Schwager book, Jim Rogers, another former Soros manager, mentioned, "Until we ran out of money, we were always leveraged to the hilt." (After they ran out of money, they'd sell the weakest positions to fund the purchase of new ideas).
ARTICLE LINK
In his enjoyable book, The New Market Wizards, Jack Schwager interviewed Stanley Druckenmiller, who formerly managed money for George Soros and later went on to found Duquesne Capital.
One part of the interview that stood out to me is Druckenmiller's recipe for long term success. In his words:
George Soros has a philosophy that I have also adopted: The way to build long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs.
You can be far more aggressive when you're making good profits. Many managers, once they're up 30 or 40 percent, will book their year [i.e., trade very cautiously for the remainder of the year so as not to jeopardize the very good return that has already been realized]. The way to attain truly superior long-term returns is to grind it out until you're up 30 or 40 percent, and then if you have the convictions, go for a 100 percent year.
If you can put together a few near-100 percent years and avoid down years, then you can achieve really outstanding long-term returns.
A few things interest me here. First is an outright recommendation to bow to the short term and manage performance so that it fits within the calendar year. I guess that's driven by the way money managers are paid and evaluated by others.
The idea of forcing the long term average up not through consistent annual performance but through sporadic "home run" years was not the advice I expected. I've never heard a leading investor propose the idea so forcefully before.
In Market Wizards, another Schwager book, Jim Rogers, another former Soros manager, mentioned, "Until we ran out of money, we were always leveraged to the hilt." (After they ran out of money, they'd sell the weakest positions to fund the purchase of new ideas).
Jim Rogers on UTVI : July 2008
Jim Rogers in an UTVI interview. You can watch and download all Jim Rogers video in this website.
Outlook on oil and commodities from the top investor Jim Rogers. Declining reserves and supplies will send oil even higher.
The commodities bull market still have ways to go.
July 2008
Jim Rogers Video Interview: June 2008
Jim Rogers about oil, metals, airlines on Bloomberg TV.
June 2008
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