Jim Rogers talks about China and commoditties in another great interview.
Jim Rogers: "China Is Making Investors Rich"
"China is on its way to becoming the superpower of the 21st century, and will play the same role that Britain and the US did in the 19th and 20th centuries," stock-market guru Jim Rogers is convinced. To profit from China's ascent, you should invest in commodities, he says, but he tends to advise against buying Chinese equities during the bubble periods.
Jim Rogers is considered one of today's most prominent market observers. The American earned the bulk of his credibility through his own professional exploits. By the young age of 37, he had already achieved his childhood dream, which was to accumulate enough wealth by the age of 40 to go into early retirement. This was made possible by the Quantum Hedge Fund, which he co-founded and whose asset value appreciated 4200 percent within the span of a decade. Mr. Rogers' subsequent endeavors included stints as a bestselling author, as a guest professor at Columbia University and as a globetrotter who circled the world twice, once by motorcycle and once by car. To the broad investor community, Mr. Rogers is now mainly known as a commodity guru. His credo is that commodities are in the midst of a long-term bull market that will easily last for another ten or more years. He has likewise earned loads of money so far with that assertion, which - like so many of his statements - contradicts the views of most analysts. In fact, his self-created Jim Rogers International Commodity Index has climbed 250 percent since 1998.
Mr. Rogers has a similarly adamant opinion on the future potential of China, which he says is on its way to becoming the superpower of the 21st century. Mr. Rogers' faith in China's ascent is so fervid that, when his daughter was born, he hired a Chinese nanny to ensure that his child learned to speak Chinese from the cradle. In Focus met Jim Rogers in late March in Hong Kong at the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference, where he delivered one of his famously witty and highly entertaining speeches.
Mr. Rogers, how is your young daughter's Chinese?
Very good. She is barely four years old, but she already speaks Chinese like a native. I've just bought her 25 DVDs in Chinese, as Chinese DVDs are hard to find in New York. We do not have a television at home. She only gets to watch Chinese stories on DVD.
That's a rather unconventional education method.
True. But for me it was obvious: the most sensible skill that I can give to somebody born in 2003 is a perfect command of Mandarin.
With so much admiration for China, one would think that you would have moved here long ago.
I'm definitely entertaining the idea. I would very much like to relocate to a Chinese-speaking city, which is why I'm trying to sell my house in New York. The future is here.
What makes you so confident?
China has had many successful periods in its history. Naturally, it has also gone through some disastrous stages. For instance, the country experienced a nearly 300-year decline that didn't end until 1978, when Deng Xiaoping took over the helm and reintroduced capitalism and free enterprise. For whatever reason, the Chinese appear to be very successful capitalists. They work hard, they save a lot and invest just as much. They know how you live in Switzerland, and that's exactly the way they want to live. So they're willing to work, save and invest as much as necessary to attain that lifestyle. There are 1.3 billion Chinese in China and another couple of hundred million outside China who possess a wealth of expertise and capital, and are now pouring it back into the country to help it further develop. It's all coming together.
China is already struggling with huge environmental problems even though the country's per capita consumption is still modest and, for example, only a minority of its 1.3 billion population owns a car. Doesn't the environment pose a potential impediment to China's development?
It will certainly have a massive impact on the environment if 1.3 billion Chinese drive cars, run air conditioners, buy trendy clothes or alter their eating habits. Is that a problem? I don't know, I'm not a scientist. There are many people who claim that automobiles have no effect at all on climate change. But there's no doubt about it: when 1.3 billion consumers come into the world market, that's going to have major consequences in any case, whatever they may be. Looking at Asia as a whole, we're actually talking about 3 billion new consumers.
Why isn't there a Jim Rogers Investment Fund for China?
Well, a Chinese investment fund would force me to go back to work (sighs), and there are just too many other things that I have much more fun doing.
How can investors profit from the rise of China?
The best way to profit from the rise of China is to buy commodities. Because the Chinese NEED commodities. If you own nickel, they will pay you on time, they will be nice to you, and they will take you out to dinner. You can of course also buy the shares of natural-resource companies, and if you are really good at it and pick the right stocks, you will make a fortune in China. But then you will have to worry about the stock market, the management, the central bank, labor unions and a hundred other things. If you simply buy nickel, you don't have to worry about any of that.
Does your optimism also carry over to India?
Not at all. India has a horrible economic system. Indian politicians are of course now talking the right concepts and are trying to implement them, but a lot goes wrong when they are put into practice and run up against the country's thoroughly anti-capitalist bureaucracy. For instance, India recently curtailed its commodity markets on the grounds that they were allegedly causing galloping inflation, which of course is completely crazy. In truth, prices are rising solely because the government is making a lot of mistakes and printing tons of money. But politicians prefer to put the blame on evil capitalists rather than on themselves. The country's terrible infrastructure is another argument against India. One example: the port of Shanghai alone handled 21 million containers last year; in contrast, all of India's ports combined handled only 5 million containers. India is not a place for investors, but it's a fabulous country for tourists. If you could only visit one country in the world, I would urge you to go to India.
Do you think that the rise of China is a win-win situation for the West?
In principle, the rise of any country should represent a win-win situation. Unfortunately, history teaches us the opposite: oftentimes, when a new country ascended economically, sooner or later that coincided with the decline of the countries that were previously dominant and often conflict Hopefully, that won't happen so quickly this time. Sadly, however, there are incompetent politicians everywhere doing crazy things.
Could some countries suffer more than others as a result of a strengthening China?
Yes, certainly. There are Americans who say the US is suffering from the rise of China, while Japan and Europe are delighted by this development. Japan does huge trade with China, as does Europe, and both also run a trade surplus with China. Vietnam and South Korea as well owe their current boom partly to the fact that they have an increasingly rich neighbor. The US, too, actually has to be benefiting, but America really hasn't understood that yet.
July 27, 2007
Jim Rogers on Wikipedia
Here is the Jim Rogers biography in Wikipedia:
James B. Rogers, Jr. (born October 19, 1942) is an American investor and financial commentator. He is co-founder, along with George Soros, of the Quantum Fund, and is a college professor, author, world traveler, economic commentator, and creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI).
Rogers, whose full name is James Beeland Rogers, was born in Wetumpka, Alabama. He grew up in Demopolis, getting started in business at the age of five, picking up bottles at baseball games. He got his first job on Wall Street, at Dominick & Dominick, after graduating with a bachelor's degree from Yale University in 1964. Rogers then acquired a master's degree from Balliol College, Oxford University in 1966. After Oxford, Rogers returned to the U.S. and enlisted in the army for a few years.
In 1970, Rogers joined Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder, where he met George Soros. That same year, Rogers and Soros founded the Quantum Fund. During the following 10 years the fund gained 3,365% while the S&P advanced about 47% (963.99/800.36).[1] It was one of the first truly international funds.
In 1980, Rogers decided to "retire", and traveled on motorcycle through China. Since then, he has been a guest professor of finance at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business.
In 1989 and 1990, Rogers was the moderator of WCBS' The Dreyfus Roundtable and FNN's The Profit Motive with Jim Rogers. From 1990 to 1992, he traveled through China again, as well as around the world, on motorcycle, over 100,000 miles (160,000 km) across six continents, which was picked up in the Guinness Book of World Records. He tells of his adventures and worldwide investments in Investment Biker.
In 1998, Rogers founded the Rogers International Commodity Index. In 2007, the index and its 3 sub-indices were linked to exchange-traded notes under the banner ELEMENTS. The notes track the total return of the indices as an accessible way to invest in the index.
Between January 1, 1999 and May 1, 2002, Rogers did another Guinness World Record journey through 116 countries, covering 245,000 kilometers with his wife, Paige Parker, in a custom-made Mercedes. The trip began in Iceland, which was about to celebrate the 1000th anniversary of Leif Eriksson's first trip to America. On January 5, 2002, they were back in New York City and their home on Riverside Drive. He wrote Adventure Capitalist following this around-the-world adventure.
On his return in 2002, Rogers became a regular guest on Fox News' Cavuto on Business which airs every Saturday. He has a daughter, Happy, born in 2003. In 2005, Rogers wrote Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market. In this book, Rogers quotes a Financial Analysts Journal academic paper co-authored by Yale School of Management professor, Geert Rouwenhorst, entitled Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures. Rogers contends this paper shows that commodities investment is one of the best investments over time, which is a concept somewhat at odds with conventional investment thinking.
In Sep. 2007, Rogers sold his mansion in New York City for about 15 million USD and moved to Singapore. This is due mainly in his belief that this is a ground-breaking time for investment potential in Asian markets. Rogers' daughter is being tutored in Mandarin to prepare her for the future, he says. "Moving to Singapore and Dubai now is like moving to New York City in 1908," he said. Also, he is quoted to say: "If you were smart in 1807 you moved to London, if you were smart in 1907 you moved to New York City, and if you are smart in 2007 you move to Asia." In an CNBC interview with Maria Bartiromo broadcast on May 5, 2008, Rogers said that people in Asia are extremely motivated and driven, and he wants to be in that type of environment to be himself motivated and driven. He said during that interview that, this is how America and Europe used to be. He chose not to move to Hong Kong or Shanghai due to the high levels of pollution causing potential health problems for his daughter.
In this website you can see all his interviews, videos and ideas.
James B. Rogers, Jr. (born October 19, 1942) is an American investor and financial commentator. He is co-founder, along with George Soros, of the Quantum Fund, and is a college professor, author, world traveler, economic commentator, and creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI).
Rogers, whose full name is James Beeland Rogers, was born in Wetumpka, Alabama. He grew up in Demopolis, getting started in business at the age of five, picking up bottles at baseball games. He got his first job on Wall Street, at Dominick & Dominick, after graduating with a bachelor's degree from Yale University in 1964. Rogers then acquired a master's degree from Balliol College, Oxford University in 1966. After Oxford, Rogers returned to the U.S. and enlisted in the army for a few years.
In 1970, Rogers joined Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder, where he met George Soros. That same year, Rogers and Soros founded the Quantum Fund. During the following 10 years the fund gained 3,365% while the S&P advanced about 47% (963.99/800.36).[1] It was one of the first truly international funds.
In 1980, Rogers decided to "retire", and traveled on motorcycle through China. Since then, he has been a guest professor of finance at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business.
In 1989 and 1990, Rogers was the moderator of WCBS' The Dreyfus Roundtable and FNN's The Profit Motive with Jim Rogers. From 1990 to 1992, he traveled through China again, as well as around the world, on motorcycle, over 100,000 miles (160,000 km) across six continents, which was picked up in the Guinness Book of World Records. He tells of his adventures and worldwide investments in Investment Biker.
In 1998, Rogers founded the Rogers International Commodity Index. In 2007, the index and its 3 sub-indices were linked to exchange-traded notes under the banner ELEMENTS. The notes track the total return of the indices as an accessible way to invest in the index.
Between January 1, 1999 and May 1, 2002, Rogers did another Guinness World Record journey through 116 countries, covering 245,000 kilometers with his wife, Paige Parker, in a custom-made Mercedes. The trip began in Iceland, which was about to celebrate the 1000th anniversary of Leif Eriksson's first trip to America. On January 5, 2002, they were back in New York City and their home on Riverside Drive. He wrote Adventure Capitalist following this around-the-world adventure.
On his return in 2002, Rogers became a regular guest on Fox News' Cavuto on Business which airs every Saturday. He has a daughter, Happy, born in 2003. In 2005, Rogers wrote Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market. In this book, Rogers quotes a Financial Analysts Journal academic paper co-authored by Yale School of Management professor, Geert Rouwenhorst, entitled Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures. Rogers contends this paper shows that commodities investment is one of the best investments over time, which is a concept somewhat at odds with conventional investment thinking.
In Sep. 2007, Rogers sold his mansion in New York City for about 15 million USD and moved to Singapore. This is due mainly in his belief that this is a ground-breaking time for investment potential in Asian markets. Rogers' daughter is being tutored in Mandarin to prepare her for the future, he says. "Moving to Singapore and Dubai now is like moving to New York City in 1908," he said. Also, he is quoted to say: "If you were smart in 1807 you moved to London, if you were smart in 1907 you moved to New York City, and if you are smart in 2007 you move to Asia." In an CNBC interview with Maria Bartiromo broadcast on May 5, 2008, Rogers said that people in Asia are extremely motivated and driven, and he wants to be in that type of environment to be himself motivated and driven. He said during that interview that, this is how America and Europe used to be. He chose not to move to Hong Kong or Shanghai due to the high levels of pollution causing potential health problems for his daughter.
In this website you can see all his interviews, videos and ideas.
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